The Market Down & Dirty 4.21.25

The Data

Equities moved lower as volatility declined slightly from the markets.

• S&P 500 -1.41% Dow -2.66% Russell 2000 +1.15%, Nasdaq -2.62%.[1]

• The All-Country World Index rose +0.29%.1

S&P 500 sub-sectors were mostly higher last week.

• Real Estate & Energy led to the upside with gains over 5%.1

• Consumer discretionary, Technology, & Communication services all declined.1

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) declined on the week and closed at 29.65.1

US Treasury bond yields declined marginally last week.

• US 2yr -0.15% at 3.81%, 10yr -0.14% to 4.34%, 30yr -0.05% to 4.80%.1

• The 10yr & 30yr saw the largest weekly yield rise since the 1980s.

Commodities as an aggregate asset class rose slightly.

• WTI Crude gained +4.75%.1

• Gold rose +2.76%.1

The US Dollar index dropped -0.69%.1

In our opinion, U.S. economic data was mixed last week.

• The housing market showed mixed data with some improving and other measures sinking.

• Retail sales matched the +1.2% monthly gain expected.1

• Jobless claims were slightly below last month and expectations. 1

An index of equities outside the US (FTSE All-World ex-US) was gained +1.96%.1

Conclusion

US markets regained some stability last week as equities ended the week mostly in negative territory.

• Major indices mostly traded lower, led by the Nasdaq with a 2.62% loss.1

• The small-cap tracking Russell 2000 was the wildcard and gained over a percent.1

• We would describe last week’s price action at the major index level as an uneasy calm.

• Equal Weight S&P 500 outperformed the normal market-cap weighted S&P by almost 2% last week.1

S&P 500 subsectors were mostly positive last week despite major US benchmarks being negative.

• This is directly related to the Consumer Discretionary & Technology sectors being disproportionately large components of the major indices.

• These sectors have continued to trade weak and lead to the downside which puts pressure on major indices like the S&P 500.

Non-US equities moved firmly higher last week as outperformance vs US stocks continued.

• LatAm equities continue to lead foreign markets to the upside.1

• Foreign equities have been helped by a bevy of items but a major tailwind has been weakness in the US Dollar.

• The US Dollar index has fallen almost 4% in April, heading for its 4th straight monthly decline.1

We believe by backpedaling on his most punitive tariffs and then holding back from further escalation with China, Trump pulled markets back from the brink and restored a semblance of normalcy.

• However, his chaotic, on-again, off-again effort to single-handedly rewrite the rules of global trade — and his initial indifference to the market meltdown it set off — has undermined confidence in the direction of the US economy, and by extension, where asset prices of all kinds are headed.

• This lack of confidence emerging is a heavy weight on all assets in the US.

As President Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff regime keeps investors wondering what comes next, we believe they’re turning their attention to the pace at which the companies that propel the economy are spending to build their businesses.

• The hope is that their stance on big expenditures, like real estate or major machinery, will offer clarity into how they see the economy.

[1] Source: Bloomberg – 4/18/2025